Spring-flation!
Spring is in full flow at Roose Ferry, with surging sap levels and surging prices!
The lane leading to the house is a mass of greenery, with the Beech trees in particular being a beautiful vivid green that sadly, soon fades to a darker glossy shade. The bluebells are in full flower and there is wild garlic for soups and salads but it remains cold; there is a nasty little easterly that never really leaves us. A decent day's rain last week has delayed what was almost a Spring drought, something virtually unknown in this corner of Wales. There is now some steady growth in the vegetable garden. The courgettes are shivering under a cloche, my carrots are up but only the broad beans are really thriving - and some of them have been growing through the winter.
But is not only the sap that is rising: inflation is now a certainty! And for once the U.K. is taking a leadership role in a world phenomenon. The current estimates are around 8% with the Bank of England (which really could be renamed "Bank of UK" one would think?) estimating recession and 10% plus inflation just around the corner. It could be worse though: friends of ours have a place and yacht in Turkey, where 20% inflation is looming!
There are a few quirky inflation anomalies emerging too. I filled up with diesel the other day at the local Tesco store. As many of you know I am somewhat notorious for leaving a time wasting fuel fill until the last possible moment, so I was aiming to get something like 57 litres into the 60 litre tank. But the pump stopped at £99! It has not been programmed to do three figures and it refused to give me any more fuel! With a little effort I might have got 58 or even 59 litres in! Most people don't know this yet, as they sensibly fill up with 20 litres left in the tank. The price for diesel at Tescos last week was £1.74 (= around NZ$3.40) but that was last week and supermarket cheap. The roadside price is now nearer £1.80 in most cases.
I am old enough to remember the last surge of inflation, in the seventies. Do any of you recall the way petrol pumps measured volume and price back then? There were little spinning clockwork dials and as inflation accelerated the dials spun faster and faster! I recall pulling up at a rural station in the mid seventies to be informed that,"the pump is broken, the gearing on the dials has burned out. We are having to replace them twice a week at the moment!"
I guess the £99 ceiling on a digital pump is the modern equivalent of that phenomenon?
If we are heading into recession there is going to be an abrupt fall in situations vacant soon: there are jobs being advertised everywhere, especially in hospitality. I was talking with someone last week who is involved in the building of the new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point. (Rumour has it that it will be antique before they finish it?) Labourers there are earning over £75K for a five day week. There is just no-one available to do this sort of work: "We sent all the decent Pole workers home after Brexit!" he added.
I try to keep out of supermarkets as much a possible, especially as Fran is now walking and driving again. She really does seem to enjoy visiting these places! But on my few visits it is hard not to notice the growing gaps on shelves. There are clearly massive supply chain issues with fresh produce particularly under pressure. This is of course all due to Covid in China, the war in Ukraine and the aforementioned labour shortages. Nobody in any way connected to the government is mentioning the "B" word as a potential cause of any of this. There are still massive delays at Dover, all EU goods arrive without being checked (much to the chagrin of British Farmers, who must undergo export paperwork) while the government has a announced, after a £200 million spend, another delay in introducing customs checks into the UK from Europe until 2023. Could this be linked in anyway to the fact that this country imports 47% of its food, much of it from European sources? And they can't risk any further delays? Vets are eagerly awaiting the arrival of African Swine Fever, or worse, from the continent any day now......
And then there is the worrying situation in Northern Ireland.......... but enough! I won't mention the Brexit again!
The COVID pandemic is now officially over! Around 100 people a day are still dying, (that's been happening for nearly 12 months now). This level of mortality would be the equivalent of around 7 deaths a day in NZ, and I note that the current death rate is around twice that. So the virus is firmly endemic in the UK and most people I know (except my 4x vaccinated wife!) have had it at least once. It looks like it is also heading towards endemic status in NZ? With a higher vaccination rate what will this end up looking like? Five deaths a day this time next year? I had hoped at one stage that NZ might manage to stay under 1,000 deaths in total but this now looks unlikely. Officially the UK has had 177K deaths now but the REAL number is probably in excess of 200,000. It's not going away any time soon!
In Wales, mask wearing in crowded places is still common (but not compulsory anymore.) Masks were totally invisible in all the places we visited in England last weekend. Their mandates were lifted a lot earlier and maybe the habit is more engrained in Wales? Or maybe we are just more sensible? I will continue to wear a mask in crowded situations, indoors.
And one of the best things of all happened recently, indoors at Roose Lodge! After 8 years of nagging on my part we finally installed a little woodburner that heats the sitting room within minutes! Aaaah! Just bask in that warmth - its nearly as warm as my sitting room in Wainui now!
We visited Somerset last weekend for my stepdaughter Kim's 40th. She knows how to throw a good party, band and marque were part of the scene and there was a real sense of "To hell with COVID- lets party!" I survived fairly unscathed considering that people were falling into the bonfire, getting dragged along the road by their dog late in the evening or vomiting into plastic bags, 11am the following morning. We stayed an extra day and visited a nature reserve: saw some Reed Warblers and a Marsh Harrier. Very exciting and good to see that some things are soaring without negative financial implications!
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